Bacterial colonisation of surface and core of palatine tonsils among Tanzanian children with recurrent chronic tonsillitis and obstructive sleep apnoea who underwent (adeno)tonsillectomy.

OBJECTIVE: Acute and chronic tonsillitis are frequently treated with antibiotics. This study aimed to understand the presence of pathogenic micro-organisms on the surface and core of chronically infected tonsils among Tanzanian children. METHODS: The study enrolled children undergoing adenotonsillectomy. Surface and core tonsillar swabs were taken. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction was performed for Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, Moraxella catarrhalis, Staphylococcus aureus, Neisseria meningitidis and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. RESULTS: Surface and core combined, isolated N meningitidis (86.1 per cent) was found the most, followed by H influenzae (74.9 per cent), S pneumoniae (42.6 per cent) and S aureus (28.7 per cent). M catarrhalis and P aeruginosa were only found in a few patients, 5.6 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively. CONCLUSION: Colonisation of the tonsillar surface and core has been found. Potentially pathogenic micro-organisms are likely to be missed based on a throat swab. Hence, the practice of surface tonsillar swabbing may be misleading or insufficient.

Arthroscopic partial meniscectomy for the degenerative meniscus tear: a comparison of patients included in RCTs and prospective cohort studies.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Concerns exist regarding the generalizability of results from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating arthroscopic partial meniscectomy (APM) to treat degenerative meniscus tears. It has been suggested that study populations are not representative of subjects selected for surgery in daily clinical practice. Therefore, we aimed to compare patients included in trials and prospective cohort studies that received APM for a degenerative meniscus tear. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Individual participant data from 4 RCTs and 2 cohort studies undergoing APM were collected. 1,970 patients were analyzed: 605 patients included in RCTs and 1,365 included in the cohorts. We compared patient and disease characteristics, knee pain, overall knee function, and health-related quality of life at baseline between the RCT and cohort groups using standardized differences, ratios comparing the variance of continuous covariates, and graphical methods such as quantile-quantile plots, side-by-side boxplots, and non-parametric density plots. RESULTS: Differences between RCT and the cohort were observed primarily in age (younger patients in the cohort; standardized difference: 0.32) and disease severity, with the RCT group having more severe symptoms (standardized difference: 0.38). While knee pain, overall knee function, and quality of life generally showed minimal differences between the 2 groups, it is noteworthy that the largest observed difference was in knee pain, where the cohort group scored 7 points worse (95% confidence interval 5-9, standardized difference: 0.29). CONCLUSION: Patients in RCTs were largely representative of those in cohort studies regarding baseline scores, though variations in age and disease severity were observed. Younger patients with less severe osteoarthritis were more common in the cohort; however, trial participants still appear to be broadly representative of the target population.

Antibiotics for acute otitis media in children.

BACKGROUND: Acute otitis media (AOM) is one of the most common diseases in childhood for which antibiotics are commonly prescribed; a systematic review reported a pooled prevalence of 85.6% in high-income countries. This is an update of a Cochrane Review first published in the Cochrane Library in 1997 and updated in 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013 and 2015. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of antibiotics for children with AOM. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Current Contents, CINAHL, LILACS and two trial registers. The date of the search was 14 February 2023. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials comparing 1) antimicrobial drugs with placebo, and 2) immediate antibiotic treatment with expectant observation (including delayed antibiotic prescribing) in children with AOM. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently screened trials for inclusion and extracted data using the standard methodological procedures recommended by Cochrane. Our primary outcomes were: 1) pain at various time points (24 hours, two to three days, four to seven days, 10 to 14 days), and 2) adverse effects likely to be related to the use of antibiotics. Secondary outcomes were: 1) abnormal tympanometry findings, 2) tympanic membrane perforation, 3) contralateral otitis (in unilateral cases), 4) AOM recurrences, 5) serious complications related to AOM and 6) long-term effects (including the number of parent-reported AOM symptom episodes, antibiotic prescriptions and health care utilisation as assessed at least one year after randomisation). We used the GRADE approach to rate the overall certainty of evidence for each outcome of interest. MAIN RESULTS: Antibiotics versus placebo We included 13 trials (3401 children and 3938 AOM episodes) from high-income countries, which we assessed at generally low risk of bias. Antibiotics do not reduce pain at 24 hours (risk ratio (RR) 0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78 to 1.01; 5 trials, 1394 children; high-certainty evidence), or at four to seven days (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.14; 7 trials, 1264 children), but result in almost a third fewer children having pain at two to three days (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.88; number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) 20; 7 trials, 2320 children; high-certainty evidence), and likely result in two-thirds fewer having pain at 10 to 12 days (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.66; NNTB 7; 1 trial, 278 children; moderate-certainty evidence). Antibiotics increase the risk of adverse events such as vomiting, diarrhoea or rash (RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.63; number needed to treat for an additional harmful outcome (NNTH) 14; 8 trials, 2107 children; high-certainty evidence). Antibiotics reduce the risk of children having abnormal tympanometry findings at two to four weeks (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.96; NNTB 11; 7 trials, 2138 children), slightly reduce the risk of experiencing tympanic membrane perforations (RR 0.43, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.89; NNTB 33; 5 trials, 1075 children) and halve the risk of contralateral otitis episodes (RR 0.49, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.95; NNTB 11; 4 trials, 906 children). However, antibiotics do not reduce the risk of abnormal tympanometry findings at six to eight weeks (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.70 to 1.13; 3 trials, 953 children) and at three months (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.34; 3 trials, 809 children) or late AOM recurrences (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.11; 6 trials, 2200 children). Severe complications were rare, and the evidence suggests that serious complications do not differ between children treated with either antibiotics or placebo. Immediate antibiotics versus expectant observation We included six trials (1556 children) from high-income countries. The evidence suggests that immediate antibiotics may result in a reduction of pain at two to three days (RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.79; NNTB 8; 1 trial, 396 children; low-certainty evidence), but probably do not reduce the risk of pain at three to seven days (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.12; 4 trials, 959 children; moderate-certainty evidence), and may not reduce the risk of pain at 11 to 14 days (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.10; 1 trial, 247 children; low-certainty evidence). Immediate antibiotics increase the risk of vomiting, diarrhoea or rash (RR 1.87, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.51; NNTH 10; 3 trials, 946 children; high-certainty evidence). Immediate antibiotics probably do not reduce the proportion of children with abnormal tympanometry findings at four weeks and evidence suggests that immediate antibiotics may not reduce the risk of tympanic membrane perforation and AOM recurrences. No serious complications occurred in either group. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: This review reveals that antibiotics probably have no effect on pain at 24 hours, a slight effect on pain in the days following and only a modest effect on the number of children with tympanic perforations, contralateral otitis episodes and abnormal tympanometry findings at two to four weeks compared with placebo in children with AOM. In high-income countries, most cases of AOM spontaneously remit without complications. The benefits of antibiotics must be weighed against the possible harms: for every 14 children treated with antibiotics, one child experienced an adverse event (such as vomiting, diarrhoea or rash) that would not have occurred if antibiotics were withheld. For most children with mild disease in high-income countries, an expectant observational approach seems justified. Therefore, clinical management should emphasise advice about adequate analgesia and the limited role for antibiotics.

Ventilation tubes (grommets) for otitis media with effusion (OME) in children.

BACKGROUND: Otitis media with effusion (OME) is an accumulation of fluid in the middle ear cavity, common amongst young children. It may cause hearing loss which, when persistent, may lead to developmental delay, social difficulty and poor quality of life. Management includes watchful waiting, autoinflation, medical and surgical treatment. Insertion of ventilation tubes has often been used as the preferred treatment. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effects (benefits and harms) of ventilation tubes (grommets) for OME in children. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane ENT Register, CENTRAL, Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov, ICTRP and additional sources for published and unpublished trials on 20 January 2023. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs in children (6 months to 12 years) with OME for ≥ 3 months. We included studies that compared ventilation tube (VT) insertion with five comparators: no treatment, watchful waiting (ventilation tubes inserted later, if required), myringotomy, hearing aids and other non-surgical treatments. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard Cochrane methods. Our primary outcomes were determined following a multi-stakeholder prioritisation exercise and were: 1) hearing; 2) OME-specific quality of life; 3) persistent tympanic membrane perforation (as a severe adverse effect of the surgery). Secondary outcomes were: 1) persistence of OME; 2) other adverse effects (including tympanosclerosis, VT blockage and pain); 3) receptive language skills; 4) speech development; 5) cognitive development; 6) psychosocial skills; 7) listening skills; 8) generic health-related quality of life; 9) parental stress; 10) vestibular function; 11) episodes of acute otitis media. We used GRADE to assess the certainty of evidence for key outcomes. Although we included all measures of hearing assessment, the proportion of children who returned to normal hearing was our preferred method, due to challenges in interpreting the results of mean hearing thresholds. MAIN RESULTS: We included 19 RCTs (2888 children). We considered most of the evidence to be very uncertain, due to wide confidence intervals for the effect estimates, few participants, and a risk of performance and detection bias. Here we report our key outcomes at the longest reported follow-up. There were some limitations to the evidence. No studies investigated the comparison of ventilation tubes versus hearing aids. We did not identify any data on disease-specific quality of life; however, many studies were conducted before the development of specific tools to assess this in otitis media. Short-acting ventilation tubes were used in most studies and thus specific data on the use of long-acting VTs is limited. Finally, we did not identify specific data on the effects of VTs in children at increased risk of OME (e.g. with craniofacial syndromes). Ventilation tubes versus no treatment (four studies) The odds ratio (OR) for a return to normal hearing after 12 months was 1.13 with VTs (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46 to 2.74; 54% versus 51%; 1 study, 72 participants; very low-certainty evidence). At six months, VTs may lead to a large reduction in persistent OME (risk ratio (RR) 0.30, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.65; 20.4% versus 68.0%; 1 study, 54 participants; low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the chance of persistent tympanic membrane perforation with VTs at 12 months (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.91; 8.3% versus 9.7%; 1 RCT, 144 participants). Early ventilation tubes versus watchful waiting (six studies) There was little to no difference in the proportion of children whose hearing returned to normal after 8 to 10 years (i.e. by the age of 9 to 13 years) (RR for VTs 0.98, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.03; 93% versus 95%; 1 study, 391 participants; very low-certainty evidence). VTs may also result in little to no difference in the risk of persistent OME after 18 months to 6 years (RR 1.21, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.74; 15% versus 12%; 3 studies, 584 participants; very low-certainty evidence). We were unable to pool data on persistent perforation. One study showed that VTs may increase the risk of perforation after a follow-up duration of 3.75 years (RR 3.65, 95% CI 0.41 to 32.38; 1 study, 391 participants; very low-certainty evidence) but the actual number of children who develop persistent perforation may be low, as demonstrated by another study (1.26%; 1 study, 635 ears; very low-certainty evidence). Ventilation tubes versus non-surgical treatment (one study) One study compared VTs to six months of antibiotics (sulphisoxazole). No data were available on return to normal hearing, but final hearing thresholds were reported. At four months, the mean difference was -5.98 dB HL lower (better) for those receiving VTs, but the evidence is very uncertain (95% CI -9.21 to -2.75; 1 study, 125 participants; very low-certainty evidence). No evidence was identified regarding persistent OME. VTs may result in a low risk of persistent perforation at 18 months of follow-up (no events reported; narrative synthesis of 1 study, 60 participants; low-certainty evidence). Ventilation tubes versus myringotomy (nine studies) We are uncertain whether VTs may slightly increase the likelihood of returning to normal hearing at 6 to 12 months, since the confidence intervals were wide and included the possibility of no effect (RR 1.22, 95% CI 0.59 to 2.53; 74% versus 64%; 2 studies, 132 participants; very low-certainty evidence). After six months, persistent OME may be reduced for those who receive VTs compared to laser myringotomy, but the evidence is very uncertain (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.38; 1 study, 272 participants; very low-certainty evidence). At six months, the risk of persistent perforation is probably similar with the use of VTs or laser myringotomy (narrative synthesis of 6 studies, 581 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There may be small short- and medium-term improvements in hearing and persistence of OME with VTs, but it is unclear whether these persist after longer follow-up. The RCTs included do not allow us to say when (or how much) VTs improve hearing in any specific child. However, interpretation of the evidence is difficult: many children in the control groups recover spontaneously or receive VTs during follow-up, VTs may block or extrude, and OME may recur. The limited evidence in this review also affects the generalisability/applicability of our findings to situations involving children with underlying conditions (e.g. craniofacial syndromes) or the use of long-acting tubes. Consequently, RCTs may not be the best way to determine whether an intervention is likely to be effective in any individual child. Instead, we must better understand the different OME phenotypes to target interventions to children who will benefit most, and avoid over-treating when spontaneous resolution is likely.

Care Pathway Analysis to Inform the Earliest Stages of Technology Development: Scoping Oncological Indications in Need of Innovation.

OBJECTIVES: Identifying unmet needs for innovative solutions across disease contexts is challenging but important for directing funding and research efforts and informing early-stage decisions during the innovation process. Our aim was to study the merits of care pathway analysis to scope disease contexts and guide the development of innovative devices. We used oncologic surgery as a case study, for which many intraoperative imaging techniques are under development. METHODS: Care pathway analysis is a mapping process, which produces graphical maps of clinical pathways using important outcomes and subsequent consequences. We performed care pathway analyses for glioblastoma, breast, bladder, prostate, renal, pancreatic, and oral cavity cancer. Differences between a "perfect" care pathway and the current care pathway in terms of percentage of inadequate margins, associated recurrences, quality of life, and 5-year overall survival were calculated to determine unmet needs. Data from The Netherlands Cancer Registry and literature were used. RESULTS: Care pathway analysis showed that highest percentages of inadequate margins were found in oral cavity cancer (72.5%), glioblastoma (48.7%), and pancreatic cancer (43.9%). Inadequate margins showed the strongest increase in recurrences in cancer of oral cavity, and bladder (absolute increases of 43.5% and 41.2%, respectively). Impact on survival was largest for bladder and oral cavity cancer with positive margins. CONCLUSIONS: Care pathway analysis provides overviews of current clinical paths in multiple indications. Disease contexts can be compared via effectiveness gaps that show the potential need for innovative solutions. This information can be used as basis for stakeholder involvement processes to prioritize care pathways in need of innovation.

Prognosis and prediction of antibiotic benefit in adults with clinically diagnosed acute rhinosinusitis: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: A previous individual participant data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) of antibiotics for adults with clinically diagnosed acute rhinosinusitis (ARS) showed a marginal overall effect of antibiotics, but was unable to identify patients that are most likely to benefit from antibiotics when applying conventional (i.e. univariable or one-variable-at-a-time) subgroup analysis. We updated the systematic review and investigated whether multivariable prediction of patient-level prognosis and antibiotic treatment effect may lead to more tailored treatment assignment in adults presenting to primary care with ARS. METHODS: An IPD-MA of nine double-blind placebo-controlled trials of antibiotic treatment (n=2539) was conducted, with the probability of being cured at 8-15 days as the primary outcome. A logistic mixed effects model was developed to predict the probability of being cured based on demographic characteristics, signs and symptoms, and antibiotic treatment assignment. Predictive performance was quantified based on internal-external cross-validation in terms of calibration and discrimination performance, overall model fit, and the accuracy of individual predictions. RESULTS: Results indicate that the prognosis with respect to risk of cure could not be reliably predicted (c-statistic 0.58 and Brier score 0.24). Similarly, patient-level treatment effect predictions did not reliably distinguish between those that did and did not benefit from antibiotics (c-for-benefit 0.50). CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, multivariable prediction based on patient demographics and common signs and symptoms did not reliably predict the patient-level probability of cure and antibiotic effect in this IPD-MA. Therefore, these characteristics cannot be expected to reliably distinguish those that do and do not benefit from antibiotics in adults presenting to primary care with ARS.

Study protocol for a multicenter randomised controlled trial on the (cost)effectiveness of biopsy combined with same-session MR-guided LITT versus biopsy alone in patients with primary irresectable glioblastoma (EMITT trial).

BACKGROUND: Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common primary, malignant brain tumour with a 5-year survival of 5%. If possible, a glioblastoma is resected and further treated with chemoradiation therapy (CRT), but resection is not feasible in about 30% of cases. Current standard of care in these cases is a biopsy followed by CRT. Magnetic resonance (MR) imaging-guided laser interstitial thermal therapy (LITT) has been suggested as a minimally invasive alternative when surgery is not feasible. However, high-quality evidence directly comparing LITT with standard of care is lacking, precluding any conclusions on (cost-)effectiveness. We therefore propose a multicenter randomized controlled study to assess the (cost-)effectiveness of MR-guided LITT as compared to current standard of care (EMITT trial). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The EMITT trial will be a multicenter pragmatic randomized controlled trial in the Netherlands. Seven Dutch hospitals will participate in this study. In total 238 patients will be randomized with 1:1 allocation to receive either biopsy combined with same-session MR-guided LITT therapy followed by CRT or the current standard of care being biopsy followed by CRT. The primary outcomes will be health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) (non-inferiority) using EORTC QLQ-C30 + BN20 scores at 5 months after randomization and overall survival (superiority). Secondary outcomes comprise cost-effectiveness (healthcare and societal perspective) and HR-QoL of life over an 18-month time horizon, progression free survival, tumour response, disease specific survival, longitudinal effects, effects on adjuvant treatment, ablation percentage and complication rates. DISCUSSION: The EMITT trial will be the first RCT on the effectiveness of LITT in patients with glioblastoma as compared with current standard of care. Together with the Dutch Brain Tumour Patient association, we hypothesize that LITT may improve overall survival without substantially affecting patients' quality of life. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05318612).

MR-guided LITT therapy in patients with primary irresectable glioblastoma: a prospective, controlled pilot study.

PURPOSE: Laser interstitial thermal therapy (LITT) is increasingly being used in the treatment of brain tumors, whereas high-quality evidence of its effectiveness is lacking. This pilot examined the feasibility of conducting a randomized controlled trial (RCT) in patients with irresectable newly diagnosed glioblastoma (nGBM), and generated data on technical feasibility and safety. METHODS: We included patients with irresectable nGBM with KPS ≥ 70 and feasible trajectories to ablate ≥ 70% of the tumor volume. Patients were initially randomized to receive either biopsy combined with LITT or biopsy alone, followed by chemoradiation (CRT). Randomization was stopped after 9 patients as the feasibility endpoint with respect to willingness to be randomized was met. Main endpoints were feasibility of performing an RCT, technical feasibility of LITT and safety. Follow-up was 3 months. RESULTS: A total of 15 patients were included, of which 10 patients received a biopsy followed by LITT and 5 patients a biopsy. Most patients were able to complete the follow-up procedures (93% clinical, 86% questionnaires, 78% MRI). Patients were planned within 3 weeks after consultation (median 12 days, range 8-16) and no delay was observed in referring patients for CRT (median 37 days, range 28-61). Two CD ≥ 3 complications occurred in the LITT arm and none in the biopsy arm. CONCLUSION: An RCT to study the effectiveness of LITT in patients with an irresectable nGBM seems feasible with acceptable initial safety data. The findings from this pilot study helped to further refine the design of a larger full-scale multicenter RCT in the Netherlands. Protocol and study identifier: The current study is registered at clinicaltrials.gov (EMITT pilot study, NTR: NCT04596930).

Stereotactic laser ablation in neuro-oncology - A survey among European neurosurgeons.

Introduction: In the last decades, the application of stereotactic laser ablation (SLA) for the treatment of intracranial tumours has been growing, even though comparative trials are lacking. Our aim was to investigate the familiarity with SLA of neurosurgeons in Europe and their opinion regarding potential neuro-oncological indications. Furthermore, we investigated treatment preferences and variability for three exemplar neuro-oncological cases and willingness to refer for SLA. Material and methods: A 26-questions survey was mailed to members of the EANS neuro-oncology section. We presented three clinical cases of respectively deep-seated glioblastoma, recurrent metastasis and recurrent glioblastoma. Descriptive statistics was applied to report results. Results: 110 respondents completed all questions. Recurrent glioblastoma and recurrent metastases were regarded as the most feasible indications for SLA (chosen by 69% and 58% of the respondents) followed by newly diagnosed high-grade gliomas (31%). Seventy percent of respondents would refer patients for SLA. The majority of respondents would consider SLA as a treatment option for all three presented cases: 79% for the deep-seated glioblastoma case, 65% for the recurrent metastasis case and 76% for the recurrent glioblastoma case. Among respondents who wouldn't consider SLA, preference for standard treatment and lack of clinical evidence were reported as the main reasons. Conclusions: Most of respondents considered SLA as a treatment option for recurrent glioblastoma, recurrent metastases and newly diagnosed deep-seated glioblastoma. At the moment the current evidence to support such a treatment is very low. Comparative prospective trials are needed to support the use of SLA and determine proper indications.

Effect of prophylactic amoxicillin on tonsillar bacterial pathogens after (adeno)tonsillectomy in children.

OBJECTIVES: Unnecessary and inappropriate antibiotic use is an increasing global health challenge. In limited resource settings, prophylactic antibiotics are still often used in (adeno)tonsillectomy (AT), despite evidence against their effectiveness. This study aimed to investigate the effect of prophylactic amoxicillin, given after AT in children. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis from a two-center, double-blinded, randomized controlled, non-inferiority trial to study the effect of prophylactic amoxicillin on post-AT morbidity. Children aged 2-14 years with recurrent chronic tonsillitis and/or obstructive sleep apnea were randomly assigned to receive either placebo or amoxicillin for 5 days after the operation. Pre- and postoperative samples were collected for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analyses to detect the five most important pathogens known to be common causes of tonsillitis. PCR results were compared before and after surgery as well as between placebo and amoxicillin. RESULTS: PCR results were obtained, 109 in the amoxicillin group and 115 in the placebo group. In the amoxicillin group, 91% of patients had at least one positive PCR test before surgery and 87% after surgery. In the placebo group, the respective percentages were 92% and 90%. In both groups, a decrease in the total number of pathogens was found after surgery. CONCLUSION: Prophylactic amoxicillin given after AT in children did not show a clinically relevant effect with respect to the number of oropharyngeal microorganisms as compared to placebo.

The value of reducing arthroscopic partial meniscectomy in the treatment of degenerative meniscus tears: a budget impact analysis.

AIMS: Numerous studies have shown that arthroscopic partial meniscectomy (APM) is not (cost-) effective in patients with symptoms attributed to a degenerative meniscus tear. We aimed to assess the budget impact of reducing APM in routine clinical practice in this population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A patient-level state transition model was developed to simulate patients recently diagnosed with a degenerative meniscus tear. Three strategies were compared: "current guideline" (i.e., postpone surgery to at least 3 months after diagnosis), "APM at any time" (i.e., APM available directly after diagnosis), and "nonsurgical" (i.e., APM no longer performed). Total societal costs over 5 years were calculated to determine the budget impact. Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were conducted to address uncertainty. RESULTS: The average cost per patient over 5 years were EUR 5,077, EUR 4,577, and EUR 4,218, for the "APM at any time," "current guideline," and "nonsurgical" strategy, respectively. Removing APM from the treatment mix (i.e., 30,000 patients per year) in the Netherlands, resulted in a reduction in health care expenditures of EUR 54 million (95 percent confidence interval [CI] EUR 38 million-EUR 70 million) compared to the "current guideline strategy" and EUR 129 million (95 percent CI EUR 102 million-EUR 156 million) compared to the "APM at any time" strategy. Sensitivity analyses showed that uncertainty did not alter our conclusions. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial costs can be saved when APM is no longer performed to treat symptoms attributed to degenerative meniscus tears in the Netherlands. It is therefore recommended to further reduce the use of APM to treat degenerative meniscus tears.

Dealing With Uncertainty in Early Health Technology Assessment: An Exploration of Methods for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty.

OBJECTIVES: In early stages, the consequences of innovations are often unknown or deeply uncertain, which complicates early health economic modeling (EHEM). The field of decision making under deep uncertainty uses exploratory modeling (EM) in situations when the system model, input probabilities/distributions, and consequences are unknown or debated. Our aim was to evaluate the use of EM for early evaluation of health technologies. METHODS: We applied EM and EHEM to an early evaluation of minimally invasive endoscopy-guided surgery (MIS) for acute intracerebral hemorrhage and compared these models to derive differences, merits, and drawbacks of EM. RESULTS: EHEM and EM differ fundamentally in how uncertainty is handled. Where in EHEM the focus is on the value of technology, while accounting for the uncertainty, EM focuses on the uncertainty. EM aims to find robust strategies, which give relatively good outcomes over a wide range of plausible futures. This was reflected in our case study. EHEM provided cost-effectiveness thresholds for MIS effectiveness, assuming fixed MIS costs. EM showed that a policy with a population in which most patients had severe intracerebral hemorrhage was most robust, regardless of MIS effectiveness, complications, and costs. CONCLUSIONS: EHEM and EM were found to complement each other. EM seems most suited in the very early phases of innovation to explore existing uncertainty and many potential strategies. EHEM seems most useful to optimize promising strategies, yet EM methods are complex and might only add value when stakeholders are willing to consider multiple solutions to a problem and adopt flexible research and adoption strategies.

The accuracy of navigated versus freehand curettage in bone tumors: a cadaveric model study.

PURPOSE: Navigation has been suggested to guide complex benign bone tumor curettage procedures, but the contribution of navigation to the accuracy of curettage has never been quantified. We explored the accuracy of navigated curettage in a cadaveric observational pilot study, comparing navigated to freehand curettage, performed independently by an expert and a novice user. METHODS: The expert performed curettage on 20 cadaveric bones prepared with a paraffin wax mixture tumor, 10 freehand and 10 navigated. We re-used 12 bones for the novice experiments, 6 freehand and 6 navigated. Tumor and curettage cavity volumes were segmented on pre- and post-cone-beam CT scans. Accuracy was quantified using the Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC), and with remaining tumor volume, bone curettage volume, maximal remaining width and procedure times compared between navigation and freehand groups for both users. RESULTS: There were little differences in curettage accuracy between a navigated (DSC 0.59[0.17]) and freehand (DSC 0.64[0.10]) approach for an expert user, but there were for a novice user with DSC 0.67(0.14) and 0.83(0.06), respectively. All navigated and freehand procedures had some amount of remaining tumor, generally located in a few isolated spots with means of 2.2(2.6) cm3 (mean 20% of the tumor volume) and 1.5(1.4) cm3 (18%), respectively, for the expert and more diffusely spaced with means of 5.1(2.8) cm3 (33%) and 3.0(2.2) cm3 (17%), respectively, for the novice. CONCLUSIONS: In an explorative study on 20 cadaveric bone tumor models, navigated curettage in its current setup was not more accurate than freehand curettage. The amount of remaining tumor, however, confirms that curettage could be further improved. The novice user was less accurate using navigation than freehand, which could be explained by the learning curve. Furthermore, the expert used a different surgical approach than the novice, focusing more on removing the entire tumor than sparing surrounding bone.

Identifying the Conditions for Cost-Effective Minimally Invasive Neurosurgery in Spontaneous Supratentorial Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

Background: In patients with spontaneous supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), open craniotomy has failed to improve a functional outcome. Innovative minimally invasive neurosurgery (MIS) may improve a health outcome and reduce healthcare costs. Aims: Before starting phase-III trials, we aim to assess conditions that need to be met to reach the potential cost-effectiveness of MIS compared to usual care in patients with spontaneous supratentorial ICH. Methods: We used a state-transition model to determine at what effectiveness and cost MIS would become cost-effective compared to usual care in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and direct healthcare costs. Threshold and two-way sensitivity analyses were used to determine the minimal effectiveness and maximal costs of MIS, and the most cost-effective strategy for each combination of cost and effectiveness. Scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses addressed model uncertainty. Results: Given €10,000 of surgical costs, MIS would become cost-effective when at least 0.7-1.3% of patients improve to a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of 0-3 compared to usual care. When 11% of patients improve to mRS 0-3, surgical costs may be up to €83,301-€164,382, depending on the population studied. The cost-effectiveness of MIS was mainly determined by its effectiveness. In lower mRS states, MIS needs to be more effective to be cost-effective compared to higher mRS states. Conclusion: MIS has the potential to be cost-effective in patients with spontaneous supratentorial ICH, even with relatively low effectiveness. These results support phase-III trials to investigate the effectiveness of MIS.

Learning Curve Analysis for Intracorporeal Robot-assisted Radical Cystectomy: Results from the EAU Robotic Urology Section Scientific Working Group.

Background: The utilisation of robot-assisted radical cystectomy with intracorporeal reconstruction (iRARC) has increased in recent years. Little is known about the length of the learning curve (LC) for this procedure. Objective: To study the length of the LC for iRARC in terms of 90-d major complications (MC90; Clavien-Dindo grade ≥3), 90-d overall complications (OC90, Clavien-Dindo grades 1-5), operating time (OT), estimated blood loss (EBL), and length of hospital stay (LOS). Design setting and participants: This was a retrospective analysis of all consecutive iRARC cases from nine European high-volume hospitals with ≥100 cases. All patients had bladder cancer for which iRARC was performed, with an ileal conduit or neobladder as the urinary diversion. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: Outcome parameters used as a proxy for LC length were the number of consecutive cases needed to reach a plateau level in two-piece mixed-effects models for MC90, OC90, OT, EBL, and LOS. Results and limitations: A total of 2186 patients undergoing iRARC between 2003 and 2018were included. The plateau levels for MC90 and OC90 were reached after 137 cases (95% confidence interval [CI] 80-193) and 97 cases (95% CI 41-154), respectively. The mean MC90 rate at the plateau was 14% (95% CI 7-21%). The plateau level was reached after 75 cases (95% CI 65-86) for OT, 88 cases (95% CI 70-106) for EBL, and 198 cases (95% CI 130-266) for LOS. A major limitation of the study is the difference in the balance of urinary diversion types between centres. Conclusions: This multicentre retrospective analysis for the iRARC LC among nine European centres showed that 137 consecutive cases were needed to reach a stable MC90 rate. Patient summary: We carried out a multicentre analysis of the surgical learning curve for robot-assisted removal of the bladder and bladder reconstruction in patients with bladder cancer. We found that 137 consecutive cases were needed to reach a stable rate of serious complications.

Image-guided procedures in the hybrid operating room: A systematic scoping review.

BACKGROUND: The shift from open to minimally invasive procedures with growing complexity has increased the demand for advanced intraoperative medical technologies. The hybrid operating room (OR) combines the functionality of a standard OR with fixed advanced imaging systems to facilitate minimally invasive image-guided procedures. OBJECTIVE: This systematic scoping review provides an overview of the use of the hybrid OR over the years, and reports on the encountered advantages and challenges. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane library databases for studies that described procedures being performed with the aid of 3D imaging in the hybrid OR. RESULTS: The search identified 123 studies that described 44 distinct procedures, divided over nine clinical disciplines. The number of studies increased from two in 2010 to 15 in the first five months of 2020. Ninety-nine (80%) of the studies described how 3D imaging was performed in the hybrid OR; 95 (96%) used cone-beam CT; four (4%) used multi-detector CT. Advantages and challenges of the hybrid OR were described in 94 (76%) and 34 (35%) studies, respectively. The most frequently reported advantage of using a hybrid OR is the achievement of more accurate treatment results, whereas elongation of the procedure time is the most important challenge, followed by an increase in radiation dose. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, the growing number of clinical disciplines that uses the hybrid OR shows its wide functionality. To optimize its use, future comparative studies should be conducted to investigate which procedures really benefit from being performed in the hybrid OR.

Development of a decision analytical framework to prioritise operating room capacity: lessons learnt from an empirical example on delayed elective surgeries during the COVID-19 pandemic in a hospital in the Netherlands.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a prioritisation framework to support priority setting for elective surgeries after COVID-19 based on the impact on patient well-being and cost. DESIGN: We developed decision analytical models to estimate the consequences of delayed elective surgical procedures (eg, total hip replacement, bariatric surgery or septoplasty). SETTING: The framework was applied to a large hospital in the Netherlands. OUTCOME MEASURES: Quality measures impacts on quality of life and costs were taken into account and combined to calculate net monetary losses per week delay, which quantifies the total loss for society expressed in monetary terms. Net monetary losses were weighted by operating times. RESULTS: We studied 13 common elective procedures from four specialties. Highest loss in quality of life due to delayed surgery was found for total hip replacement (utility loss of 0.27, ie, 99 days lost in perfect health); the lowest for arthroscopic partial meniscectomy (utility loss of 0.05, ie, 18 days lost in perfect health). Costs of surgical delay per patient were highest for bariatric surgery (€31/pp per week) and lowest for arthroscopic partial meniscectomy (-€2/pp per week). Weighted by operating room (OR) time bariatric surgery provides most value (€1.19/pp per OR minute) and arthroscopic partial meniscectomy provides the least value (€0.34/pp per OR minute). In a large hospital the net monetary loss due to prolonged waiting times was €700 840 after the first COVID-19 wave, an increase of 506% compared with the year before. CONCLUSIONS: This surgical prioritisation framework can be tailored to specific centres and countries to support priority setting for delayed elective operations during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, both in and between surgical disciplines. In the long-term, the framework can contribute to the efficient distribution of OR time and will therefore add to the discussion on appropriate use of healthcare budgets. The online framework can be accessed via: https://stanwijn.shinyapps.io/priORitize/.

Early Health Economic Modeling of Novel Therapeutics in Age-Related Hearing Loss.

Background: Health systems face challenges to accelerate access to innovations that add value and avoid those unlikely to do so. This is very timely to the field of age-related sensorineural hearing loss (ARHL), where a significant unmet market need has been identified and sizeable investments made to promote the development of novel hearing therapeutics (NT). This study aims to apply health economic modeling to inform the development of cost-effective NT. Methods: We developed a decision-analytic model to assess the potential costs and effects of using regenerative NT in patients ≥50 with ARHL. This was compared to the current standard of care including hearing aids and cochlear implants. Input data was collected from systematic literature searches and expert opinion. A UK NHS healthcare perspective was adopted. Three different but related analyses were performed using probabilistic modeling: (1) headroom analysis, (2) scenario analyses, and (3) threshold analyses. Results: The headroom analysis shows an incremental net monetary benefit (iNMB) of £20,017[£11,299-£28,737] compared to the standard of care due to quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gains and cost savings. Higher therapeutic efficacy and access for patients with all degrees of hearing loss yields higher iNMBs. Threshold analyses shows that the ceiling price of the therapeutic increases with more severe degrees of hearing loss. Conclusion: NT for ARHL are potentially cost-effective under current willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds with considerable room for improvement in the current standard of care pathway. Our model can be used to help decision makers decide which therapeutics represent value for money and are worth commissioning, thereby paving the way for urgently needed NT.

Confounding adjustment methods in longitudinal observational data with a time-varying treatment: a mapping review.

OBJECTIVES: To adjust for confounding in observational data, researchers use propensity score matching (PSM), but more advanced methods might be required when dealing with longitudinal data and time-varying treatments as PSM might not include possible changes that occurred over time. This study aims to explore which confounding adjustment methods have been used in longitudinal observational data to estimate a treatment effect and identify potential inappropriate use of PSM. DESIGN: Mapping review. DATA SOURCES: We searched PubMed, from inception up to January 2021, for studies in which a treatment was evaluated using longitudinal observational data. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Methodological, non-medical and cost-effectiveness papers were excluded, as were non-English studies and studies that did not study a treatment effect. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Studies were categorised based on time of treatment: at baseline (interventions performed at start of follow-up) or time-varying (interventions received asynchronously during follow-up) and sorted based on publication year, time of treatment and confounding adjustment method. Cumulative time series plots were used to investigate the use of different methods over time. No risk-of-bias assessment was performed as it was not applicable. RESULTS: In total, 764 studies were included that met the eligibility criteria. PSM (165/201, 82%) and inverse probability weighting (IPW; 154/502, 31%) were most common for studies with a treatment at baseline (n=201) and time-varying treatment (n=502), respectively. Of the 502 studies with a time-varying treatment, 123 (25%) used PSM with baseline covariates, which might be inappropriate. In the past 5 years, the proportion of studies with a time-varying treatment that used PSM over IPW increased. CONCLUSIONS: PSM is the most frequently used method to correct for confounding in longitudinal observational data. In studies with a time-varying treatment, PSM was potentially inappropriately used in 25% of studies. Confounding adjustment methods designed to deal with a time-varying treatment and time-varying confounding are available, but were only used in 45% of the studies with a time-varying treatment.